The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.
I have news, Trump said we collected $150...wait for it...TRILLION DOLLARS IN TARIFFS!
If tariffs were effective, they wouldn't be targeting Maduro and the base of the attack.
Tariffs could generate over $250 billion in 2025 if trade policies remain aggressive, but economic slowdowns or negotiations may reduce their overall impact.
Trump's tariffs are on pace to shatter expectations by raking in over $250 billion in 2025 revenue, fueling debates on whether the economic ripple effects justify the inflationary squeeze on everyday consumers.
Beware. First sentence of the Rules is incorrect. $82.2b was collected in FY 2024, not FY 2025.
Secondly, the FY runs to the end of Sep, so OCt, Nov, Dec don't count to the total.
Put together there is 0 chance of a yes
My estimate of the probability Putting it all together I would estimate the probability of the Yes outcome over $250 billion at around 60 % to 70 %.
Wait the fiscal year end in SEPTEMBER?? What the actual fuck?
shhhhhh....
welcome to polymarket @theunknowng!!!
I wish I had lower orders..
we all know its your alt lil gup
2 TRILLION is bigger than 250 BILLION last time i checked
Sadge
The published Q3 number is 260b, but I believe it is fake. And the Supreme Court will make trump return all the tariffs.
totally agree bro
Bro I will be so fucked if Trump doesn't have to refund the tariffs...
where does it say that?
Government website, isn't it too high? And I am betting on the Supreme Court.
wtf I just realized something... idk how I did not realise this earlier wtffff.... I will share my findings on October 9th
I think I will lose EVERYTHING
Am I that unfunny? (the answer is no!)
trillions
TWO TRILLION
The amount of $82.2b cited by the rules includes $5.9b from 2023. Does this mean the resolution will follow the same metric and include revenue from the previous year that is due in the next?
Do you know what receipts are bro, it could be a payment that was due in 1980 for all we care...
No, it's because the government is slow and lags. They aren't able to finish counting every dollar by Dec 31. That's why a lot of Q4 is counted in Q1 and why the data is not reported until February. But the wording in the rules is unclear. The number cited uses that data, though. So that means this is basically a sure thing since tariffs are at $183B right now, generating $32B a month with 3 months to go
What date are they going off of for this bet so badly worded
This is the market that just keeps on giving
im going to lose all my money president trump gonna collect trillions of tariffs
estimated 300-500 billion in projected revenue
Trump just said the US has already taken in TRILLIONS in tariff revenue and this market is THIS LOW?? SatoshiAncap knows what he's doing is all i can say!
OpenAI give an estimated probability of hitting $250B in FY 2025: ~25 %. Not much, but worth the try.
Get yourself a cold beer and try to relax. You will enjoy it.
Why is this not 99c for no.. this has no shot of hitting. 250
I guess some people think that FY ends in December… I do not know but it seems only rational explanation to me
$152 billion through July
“ Customs duties, along with some excise taxes, generated $152 billion through July, roughly double the $78 billion netted over the same time period last fiscal year, according to Treasury data.” - NYT article
NYT Article Title: “ Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.”
Hope you know that FY ends in September? Right?
LMAOOO that guy sold all his shares the day you posted this comment
the largest tax on American consumers in US history. imagine how braindead you have to be to vote for Trump
Not from the us but voting for any major party is stupid, but some people get tricked into thinking they have to
Its not, voting for the less bad options is always good
You're right a man who is barely sentient or a woman who is close to a neolithic Mongoloid in intellect is vastly superior - very astute
Thx I know