PoliticsMarkets

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

$37,559 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Yes$38K Vol.

25%

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” “Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model. A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price. Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs. The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Holders

polymarkPapermarket130 Yes18d ago

Okay now im super bullish on this (especially at 24% Yes) Theyre making a version with removable steering wheel & pedals to satisfy regulators & its already in production. This version should still be priced below 30k because Cybercabs are Steer by Wire. Not only is Cybercab important for robotaxis but the version with steering wheel is Tesla's response to China's low cost EVs. I think its coming 2026, barring some black swan production issues. They cant be producing them already and not sell them as they're wasting money. The steering wheel + pedals shows theyre focused on getting it out asap and willing to make adjustments to do so.

polymarkPapermarket130 Yes18d ago

hmm: "Apart from riding jokes about MKBHD’s wager, Musk also confirmed that Tesla will be selling a Cybercab to regular consumers before 2027, and the vehicle will be priced for $30,000 or less. In response to an X user who asked if the exact scenario will be happening, Musk responded with a simple “Yes.”

polymarkPapermarket130 Yes18d ago

Elon's response was in February, earlier this year & all they need it to sell it to one customer for the market to resolve Yes. "While the first Cybercab has been produced at Giga Texas, it would not be surprising if the following months will only see low volumes of the autonomous two seater being produced. As per Elon Musk in previous comments, the Cybercab’s early production will likely be slow, but it will eventually be extremely fast. “For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” he said.

doubleone2Papermarket4K No34d ago

Sell what?

JewedGamblerPapermarket34d ago

CalOne1Papermarket244 No40d ago

It's just a single one

0xBe19c22E8fBC40b48039209F12c244d09bBb332c-1769536707950Papermarket113d ago

So Musk could sell ONE to his close friend? This should be based on Tesla opens orders of Cybercab vehicle to the general public at a base price of $30,000 USD or less AND delivers at least one to the general public (excluding close friends and family, employees, and large investors).