On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur: 1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part 2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe. For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs. If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.
[link removed] [link removed] I mean, shouldn't this be over now?
So, when does the market ends?
now. ggs
[link removed] Welp, I lost $500 on this... gg
Whoever made this market was pretty cruel with the timing window of June 30th, honestly. Doesn't really hold to the spirit of the question..
More interesting bet though.
oh look, it's the DUMBFUCK who SOLD DOLLARS for 25 cents, then bought them for 57 cents in the Tariffs market. RETARD BILLY was offering Yes shares for 15 cents a pop, btw, but you, as usual, were TOO STUPID to buy at a GOOD PRICE! Have fun LYING ALL DAY and TRADING LIKE SHIT
Greedy retard sent 90k to scammer 😁😁😁
love the karma you pay for LYING NONSTOP lololol
Everytime I read your words I just smile and think back to how you were dumb enough to fall for it. Nobody was except you. I should target you more.
No problem: "The Trump administration says it will be sending out its first round of refunds on or about May 11"
[link removed] CAPE has launched. Now it's about waiting to see when refunds will start processing.
If anyone is looking for an opportunity to make a lot of money, now is your chance. This is definitely gonna resolve to No
lol, Why?
The refunds start today.
See my comment from 5 days ago
No, the applications for a refund start today. Trump is gonna challenge the order at which point a stay will be issued, so none of it will happen within the foreseeable future anyway
Why are you so sure the judge will grant the stay?
Not 100% sure tbh but I think it's pretty likely given that there's precedent this is outside of the CITs authority
The first refunds will starts soon, largely before 30 June, you should cancel your bet to save your money.
I'm holding till May 5th which is the appeal deadline. If there's an appeal (which I think there will be), I keep my shares. If not I'll sell it all
Nobody talks about this appeal. I don't know where you found that, that is judged already and the process for refunds is started.
The refund timing is tight. Gonna hedge a smidgen.
[link removed] refund issuance within 60-90 days after application, application since Apr.20th
It's not gonna happen because there's a precedent against lower courts issuing universal injunctions in Trump v CASA. The CIT is a lower court, and Eaton issued a universal injunction. [link removed] Trump himself said it's going to drag on “for the next five years”. They have until May 6th to challenge the order, which they certainly will. This CBP refund system is all for show.
that's the wrong case, about universal birthrights lol, the supreme court already rule on the tariff, the market is about the refund process since usually it took about 60-90 days to issue the refund after CAPE application was accepted, since the CAPE system is online at April 20th, the refunds are expected to arrive within the timeframe of June 30th
The supreme court ruled on Febuary 20th that the tariffs were illegal, but it was the CIT that ordered the refunds. In Trump v CASA, the matter at hand was birthright, but the ruling was determined by the decision that federal courts don't have the power to impose universal injunctions. The CIT is a federal court, and the refunds are a universal injunction. Trump will certainly challenge the CIT ruling. The refunds might not happen at all, much less by June 30th.
does not matter if CIT ruling is challenged or not, as long as CBP issue refund to the importers, it fulfill the market rules, CBP is pushing direct actions with several different legal grounds rather than playing for delaying tactics and law firms are actively helping clients to fill the CAPE applications already even in worst case scenario, that refund is indeed ruled illegal, there will be a halt of further issuance of refund and probably some recourse, but will still bel Y in this one, so in the end it's about timeframe, not legal grounds
The president has until May 6th to challenge the ruling, which will halt the refunds. If the CBP really wanted to issue refunds, they would've used the automated system they used in 2018. They already had the infrastructure to issue large scale refunds, but they made a new system for an excuse to delay. Also, the CBP deliberately made it complicated for companies to file for refunds: [link removed]
This is why Yes is going up: [link removed]
Will this resolve to yes if anybody receives refunds or only if they're distributed en masse?
it's not going to be distributed en masse anyway, it's a case by case refund, you need to make CAPE application first, then you'll receive the refunds in 60-90 days, read the refund guide plz if you want to bet NO, you are betting the process will take 70+ days for all applicants, which isn't impossible, but you better understand what you are betting on
The refunds will take more than 95 days by most estimates.
the guide promises 60-90 days
The first ones will probably be faster.
[link removed] "The Trump administration told a federal court on Thursday how it will refund companies after its sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court last month. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 last month that the sweeping global tariffs imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, and a judge on the U.S. Court of International Trade later ordered refunds for all unlawfully collected tariffs shortly after the high court’s decision. In one case in which companies are pursuing tariff refunds, Brandon Lord, executive director of Customs and Border Protection’s Trade Policy and Programs directorate, filed a sworn declaration outlining the new web portal being developed for companies to file refund requests."
It should’ve resolved already
It won't resolve until there is confirmation of funds being received by a damaged party.
And this could take time in courts to resolve.
So they will be ready to process refunds but will process them only after a long court battle?
[link removed] 45~ days from now there will ostensibly be a refund process in place.
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We got a little rollercoaster over here, huh?
Why is my withdraw blocked for review ?!!
No one can expect Trump to return the money; the only answer is "fuck off."