PoliticsMarkets
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
$34,709 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican$14K Vol.80%
Democrat$21K Vol.20%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
I agree fully with the repricing, but is there any reason it happened in particular?
A Democratic win is undepriced imo. Lindsey Graham has gone balls deep into supporting the Iran war, even in November, before the Blue Wave matured beyond special election overperformance, two polls put him at winning by only +2 over a generic Democrat. No polls have happened since as the Democratic narrative has codified nationwide and the beginning of the Iran war he has fully endorsed, far more than necessary (i.e., pledging South Carolina's children to die in Iran), and similar conditions have resulted in unprecedented poll flips in Texas and now Ohio, even before the war began. Combined with Lindsey's unpopularity, a shock Democrat opening here seems very likely imo.
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Republican · Yes
Amount
$
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