Texas Senate Election Winner

Paxton seems like a safe bet, especially after pardoning Hoffman (watch Adam Hoffman's name in politics in the next few years), this is pretty good value lol.

I'm not sure. He could easily win the primary, being the lead pdf file protector in the party of pdf file protectors, but I'm not so sure your average Texan loves pdf files.

it will not be

Needs margin event to

Low T Vegan Jimmy gonna win over the hearts and minds of gritty Texans!

low IQ MAGA with -3k PNL😃

You okay? I’m joking around. I’m not a Republican

lmao not a chance 🤣

Last TX Senate election was in 2020 (when Trump lost). Can people steelman why they think GOP being unpopular federally will lead to a Talarico/D win in Texas Senate if it didn't happen last time?

Moreover, in the last TX Senate election the republican (Cornyn) won by 10% (over 1.1 million votes)

Trump won Texas by almost 14 points in ‘24. Would be quite the swing! If Dems had a perfect candidate, maybe. Low t vegan Jimmy crying for the trans children ain’t it

If you had to list issues associated with Talarico then trans rights come in at like 35th

He's not even a vegan. But noted, @deebska-7979 wants the pedophile in

In 2020, the Dems lost 10 House seats and gained 3 Senate seats. If those are approximately the results you expect in 2026, then your analogy is on point.

That's a great point actually, thanks. My understanding of 2020 Dem congressional underperformance is the whole 'split ticket' phenomenon where people were both anti trump federally but also anti-dem closer to home. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if so, wouldn't we expect something similar this time around as Trump is unpopular but so are both GOP & Dems? Is there any data that points to this time being different?

I think this time the Dems are going to crush the Repubs. The gerrymandering will help, but it wouldn't surprise me if they net +10 to +20. In non presidential years, the President's party always gets beat and given gas prices, inflation and what feels like an endless war, I think this time the Repubs will get beat up. But I still think they'll hold the Senate seat in Texas. In 2018, Ted Cruz held on against Beto O'Rourke, a candidate more charismatic than Talarico and that was a blue wave election like this one may be. Good luck.

Let them dream. It's free cash for us.

The more apt comparison is 2018 when Cruz beat Beto by 2.7%. That was also a Trump admin midterm and Cruz was a relatively unpopular candidate. The questions are do you think: a) is Paxton a more flawed candidate than 2018 Cruz? B) Is Talarico more electable in Texas than Beto was? C) has Texas voter demographics shifted since 2018 in a way that benefits Democrats? D) is the national climate more or less favorable to D’s than ‘18 and E) is there an enthusiasm gap between the parties and where will it be in Nov. If those points collectively add up to 3% or more Talarico should be the favorite.

Yes! You can’t compare midterms with presidential elections. It’s a completely different electorate with wildly different results.

Put simply, Paxton’s favorability is -17, Talarico’s is +7 in a race where Dems are likely to run at +8 or more nationally.

Truly the most republican republican of all time

The economist puts Trump at -24 in Texas, -7 among 2024 voters, and Talerico has routinely polled +7 And people still think Ken Paxton has a hope in hell of winning in a general?

The guy who believes in the economist has zero dollars on the line, color me surprised.

And you're meant to? Because you don't either

why did talarico go down

People prefer the pedophile kleptocrat

common sense 🤣 this Beto 2.0 🤣

lot's of retard MAGA here

New - Senate poll - Texas 🔵 Talarico 45% 🔴 Paxton 38% PPP #B (🔵) - LV - 5/26 MAGA is donezo and Trump is historically unpopular. Dems flip both houses and Trump becomes lame duck president. It's over.

Imagine thinking Talarico can win Texas Senate 🤣

Republicans will probably lose the Senate based on current sentiment. But it will not be because of Texas

Paxton winning tonight will make this price a great value because it's gonna go through the roof.

I suppose the prospect of the Texas market being rated Dem still scares the degen gamblers?

Love watching Republicans shoot themselves in the foot. Paxton is the worst possible candidate. Your time is coming to an end, MAGA

Hahaha.... You too young to know who Beto is?

Finally starting to look properly priced

Need some more big ball betters here No new polls doesn't mean reversion

Ohio went blue for much less When you factor the way the winds are blowing, the Dems are massively underpriced

43% for the Dems is bonkers, Talerico hype is real

retarded

Then I wish to be vindicated

Talerico will be winner

Dems gonna win unfortunately, Republicans fumbled the bag in Texas.

Unfortunately

not even remotely close

I agree