German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) wins over 15% of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Ciao ciao ciao loser Gruene ;)
How is this not resolved yet?
Ciao ciao ciao loser Gruene ;)
RIP
Auf geht's Habeck!
14%! Final poll from the most accurate pollster, including today's data. Let's go, Greens! 🤞 [link removed]
As much as I’d like to agree with you, I just don’t see it happening. The (unjustified) public hatred towards the Greens is strong and on top of that, the Left is taking many of their potential votes. There’s also hardly anything left to gain from the SPD since they’ve already shrunk to their core voters. Plus, Merz will probably avoid another mistake.
Agree, not sure if it will happen. BUT, the the chance is not 10%, its more likely 40-50%, therefore this is still a good bet!
Polls could be off by 1%... it's not impossible for them to receive ie. 15.1%....No seems way overpriced tbh
Yeah at least 30% chance of them receiving 15% + 1 vote
That would require the Greens to get more votes than they did in 2021, which is impossible given the trend in Germany's latest state parliament elections. They are much less popular now compared to 2021. There's no way that's going to happen.
"unjustified" hahaha, delusional
Will the Greens win 15% or more of the vote in the German election? Current Probability: 18.34% [link removed]
Will the Greens win 15% or more of the vote in the German election? Current Probability: 18.9% [link removed]
They are rising in some polls to 15% but they have big Problems when IT Comes to Younger vorers because Theyre turning to the left Party.
Greens again at 15% in todays poll
LOL we have bet on the exact same 10 bets concerning the Bundestagswahl. And we have oppesite opinions one each of these bets
[link removed] going to be very close! Still undervalued imo.
Best German Site for the Election: [link removed]
this one is usually more up to date: [link removed]
Latest INSA poll from Jan 27 sees Green at 12.5%
[link removed]
The Economist moving average of all polls has Greens at 14% plusminus 4. [link removed]
This is so crazy undervalued still.
[link removed] gives a moving average of all polls. Greens are at 10.8% in October and at 13.6% now, they clearly have upwards momentum with latest polls showing them at 15%
probably discontent for the SPD reaching out for BSW and conservative voters... so they vote green... anyways the greens are incredibly unpopular I don't think they can make it over 13-14%
Haha, hi Nancy, good to see you!
I am not talking about 2022. The crucial trend is the one starting with the collapse of the ampel coalition. Ever since then numbers for greens have steadily improved and that trends seems to conitnue
Newest poll of today, Greens at 15%! [link removed]
15% or 14,80% ? Not the same...
Yougov now sees them at 15%, best Score in a year.
is there any volumn on this?
germans have had enough of suicidal policies
Question is: What is meant by "over 15%". Do 15,1% count as over or do it need to be at least 16%?
at least 15.1, as the results from the Federal Returning Officer are only 1 digit after the decimal point
Thanks. There is fruit in the house.
Why 15.1, the Federal Returning Officer publishes the exact number of votes of each party. You can calculate the exact percentage yourself.
Fair point, you are absolutely correct