GeopoliticsMarkets
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
$1,096,769 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Yes$1M Vol.99%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The embassy clause is the only interesting angle here and Ten poly spotted it
@AlphaOracl3 I can give you an exit at 96.3
sry bro deal is off
Did not see.
You wanna buy more @dube?
Done sir, good doing business
due to the long line of succession within the manny government positions within iran it is nearly impossible for the us to do regime change without a invasion
define regime change
They defined it oh my god what a waste of money
my money? thats its over....
its over IRAN lost
lol lmao even
Currently, the United States is taking an increasingly aggressive posture in this conflict. With Trump’s approach, there is no intention of allowing the regime to regain strength or stability. Rather, the objective is to keep it under constant pressure and remain prepared for a swift second wave of intervention, likely supported by highly advanced military capabilities in the region. the regime, will surely end before May. :D
Hhhhhh never going to happened
what would it take for this market to go down? or is this one of those market that will suddenly flip or stay above 80 until the end? The Islamic regime is on it's last legs they have to have nightly street rallies by imported militias and paid government employees to show the people that they are still in control but everyone knows that nothing is the same... They will ride it until the end but calling that "survival" is a huge stretch!
Cope :)
We will see. I think this will not age well... but we will see
Iran won
Donald? is that you?😂
Yes they won 😉 😄
if i had money i would buy no
Pre-war Iran was Theocratic Republic, It is now a police state. Does this qualify as a regime fall or death I would say no, but there has been change as a direct result of military strikes. There is far more of a 12% chance of the regime to fall before July. Iran's own reporting is all lies but whatever news comes out of Iran from on the ground reporting shows lots of tell tale signs of collapse. If Kargh is taken and kept for more than a week then the market should almost reverse.
cope
Some funny cope in the comments
Consider how ridiculous this market is. On the eve of the war yes was 63% after the overwhelming and obvious defeat of the Islamic regime military this market went to 55% and then started raising again literally the day that the death of Khamenei was confirmed there hasn't been a dip ever since. Now compare that with reality. This market is a representation on the IRGC propaganda dream in which the Islamic regime is winning... what a joke. Pure insanity.
The bet is based on whether the regime *survives* the strikes, not it winning
according to the rules there are 2 conditions. 1 is already met (and it barely affected the market at all) condition 2 says that the regime does not collapse by June. There is way more than a 28% chance that it will collapse by then.
then buy yes man
I'm buying no, my point is how ridiculous it is to think there is over 70% chance that it will be yes. that's my whole point.
If anything the propaganda is going the other way. The chance of the regime falling by the end of June is closer to 15%.
You could argue that the regime has already fallen, How could you believe it wont, We are already seeing massive numbers of defections and deaths! there isn't even a police station that is left standing in most cities! The propaganda is going the other way? what could you possibly mean!?
Regime will survive this short term interval
Really? How much more? More than 50%?. Hamas still exists and prevails as the political force in Gaza even the the Bibi and the Zionist gang have reduce it to rubble.
The bet and win money buddy
Even with the new threat that the US will destroy all the powerplants in Iran this market just keeps going up! What will it take for people to think a obviously failed state will actually fail?! Even economically they were on the verge of collapse even before the war!
Trump could announce that Iran surrenders. Trump parades them out on TV to show us and the liberal media would still spout rubbish that the liberals will gladly eat up. They dont live in reality. Never bet against Trump.
I think you just lost 75
I guess it's easier to criticise our past understanding of the future than to predict the future criticisms of our current understanding.
how you figure champ?
Yeah I'm pretty sure that 75 is gone
polymarket ....If they already manipulate information as they please, as happened yesterday with the Strait of Hormuz, then in this respect we have already won; Iran has already lost the war, as Trump said. we win
Holy propaganda victim
Yes. Hormuz straight already completely open. Tehran was captured in 3 days, shaming Putin. Everyone looks at America and is filled with deep sense of awe and respect.
Says the propaganda idiot
BBC/CBS: Trump: the war will be over pretty quickly, ie, the regime will survive
The source of truth for those whose research includes pushing 1 button on a remote control. Well done Einstein.
where’s mojtaba?
Buying up yes shares with IRGC money.
who really thinks they survive? 😂
me
🤣 🤣🤣
they are NOT surviving
they'll survice just fine
the only way to install a new regime is for the US and Israel to put boots on ground
Wrong. They have the immortal guard, ready to go. This war will be fully over in 2 months. The boots are on the ground. They have been the whole time. 90% of Iranians hate IRGC. Stop believing AI slop and BBC.
Iran sais this de*d I wait the money
regime dummy, not ayatholla
😂😂😂
those market rules are a headache
what if no strike and no regime change? does that count as a yes?
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Yes · Yes
Amount
$
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