This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual elected as pope is someone other than any of the following candidates: Pietro Parolin, Luis Antonio Tagle, Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Péter Erdő, Peter Turkson, or Jean‑Marc Aveline. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
"who goes into the conclave as pope leaves as cardinal"
Nice
Use your brain my friend... There are 133 cardinals eligible to be elected, and only a handful of them are listed on Polymarket. Basically, you are currently betting at 21 percent odds that the next Pope will be one of the other 110 cardinals. And let's be honest, in these things the favorites mean nothing. They are usually just random media speculation. The winner could easily be someone not even listed on Polymarket. So in my opinion, this 21 percent bet is extremely +EV right now.
Agree. I've looked at the numbers for last 3 popes wrt cardinals belonging to a religious order; some very interesting trends. Whoever the horse is, he'll belong to an 'Order'
You were right!
Thanks man! your comment was what finally convinced me!