PoliticsMarkets
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Republican58%
Independent40%
Democrat3%
$132,903 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican$51K Vol.58%
Independent$6K Vol.40%
Democrat$75K Vol.3%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Dan Osborne needs to be added to the market. As for the analysis - it echoes Ohio a lot - we know the Democratic narrative has expanded greatly since November/December and yielded a massive Dem overperformance in the Texas Senate Primaries and now the polls. Ohio was staunchly forecasted to be a Republican state based off polls in November, and the second polls came in (as of a few days ago), it's become very clearly tilt Democratic. Nebraska is currently witnessing very similar conditions, Ohio is a canary in the coal mine for states predicted to be tilt Republican without major polls in nearly half a year.
There's an in market Republican / Dem arb
market is pricing in Dan Osborn run