Yes$97K Vol.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.
Looks like I've missed some free money!
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Canada and the US did it ages ago. The IRGC has been harassing dissidents right here in London for way too long. If Starmer really wants to show he’s tough on national security, he needs to ignore the back-channel talk and just ban them already.
Unlikely by June. They’ll use the new "Foreign Influence Registration Scheme" (FIRS) instead. They already put the whole IRGC on the "enhanced tier" on March 4, 2025. That’s their "soft" ban.
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