PoliticsMarkets
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$10,233,781 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yes$10M Vol.12%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
I like this part 'Examples of qualifying events include... a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission.' :)
A White House official told the BBC the administration was very optimistic the talks were headed in the right direction. Denmark has previously expressed a willingness to discuss additional American military bases on the island, and its foreign ministry confirmed talks with the US were taking place. "There is an ongoing diplomatic track with the United States. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not go into further detail at this time," a spokesperson said. US officials have floated an arrangement in which the three new military bases would be formally designated as US sovereign territory, according to one source with knowledge of the negotiations. The bases would be in southern Greenland and primarily focus on surveillance of potential Russian and Chinese maritime activity in an area of the northern Atlantic between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom known as the GIUK Gap, the officials who spoke to the BBC said.
i dont understand the resolution, does a 99-year lease or military basing agreement count as 'acquiring part of Greenland'? i asked my agent at preftrade and it said: “If it requires actual sovereignty transfer, 14¢ feels high. Denmark has been explicit they won't sell. If a long-term arrangement counts, 14¢ might actually be low given the pace of US pressure.” i bought no!!
How can people still buy yes??
Trump's Greenland framework announced at Davos in January is a negotiating position dressed up in diplomatic language - Greenland's government has said repeatedly and publicly that the island is not for sale, and Denmark has NATO cover to resist any coercive annexation. A security arrangement giving the US expanded basing rights is the realistic ceiling here, not actual acquisition. The 16% YES feels at least 10 points too high.
no chance, have their hands full elsewhere
I forgot I have bets on this. Are people still betting on this lol
No could be 99 to 1 and it would still be undervalued
I think there’s zero chance this happens by year-end because the 2009 Self-Government Act gives Greenlanders, not Denmark, the final say—and they’ve already said no. Any move to buy them out would trigger a constitutional crisis in Copenhagen and a total meltdown within NATO. At most, we’ll see a new defense or mining lease, but actual "acquisition" is a pipe dream for 2026.
The ham fisted approach did not work. Only way to do it now is by diplomatic means. First you got to wait a little to calm this thing down. Then you can start to cohecre and bribe Danish and greenlandic officials, slowly building political support within the country. Once you have gained some trust you explain how much better everything will be. Once the pie in the sky is clearly visible you bring it to the vote. I'd say it's doable in about 3 years. Very ambitious timeline. Just at the very end of the term.
It’s going to happen. All it takes is for US to build another base lol.
Fill my order then lmfaoo u should really read the rules goycattle
100%
No, this is not about military operations on land, its about sovereignty of the land. No military base ever includes the agreement to own the land, they get to place their buildings and resources there, but a military base would never be imbued the powers to sovereign the land. This is not going to happen. and it definitely, categorically cant happen by just building a military base.
Sh1t here we go again... robbing dumb american money to finance my european kid's transgender operation and his/her/their future marriage to a muslim immigrant
Gambling away my potential here because our feminised western culture has stolen all my hope. Islam is a much stronger, brutal and male ideology. It will inevitably fuck away feminism.. western humanism was just a fluke in history of mankind. The more violent ideology always wins against a weak feminine society.
How's that going for you now?
Greenland is important to us gov in many aspects, most of people don't even realize how important it is I think US will make a deal as long as Trump
If its so important, then why did Trump back down from the idea? He faced off with all of EU and his bluff got called. If you play poker and make outrages bets and somebody forces you to play the bets to the end and you then fold. Well then your strategy failed but also nobody is gonna think you were serious to begin with. By fol
By folding, Trump directly told everyone, what he said about the importance of owning Greenland wasnt true. If there actually was any importance there, then why fold?
That's the skill how Trump does his business, e.g talk & apply sanctions back and forth. I don't know folding or not, but I firmly hold the belief he will do it. at least it's 40% chance or more.
After the Epstein files being released and a lot of concern going around Trump's presidency, I doubt a deal will be made
The odds have not changed since the release: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027
"I think it's pretty well agreed to. I mean, they want us to do it (European leaders). I think we're going to make a deal"
hooptie's comment will drain your wallet
100% yes. Who can give me some be
Can someone tip me some money please? Gonna spend on food ^^
who wants to loan $ to me I got inside knowledge. cant use my own cause ill get thrown in jail
My dog is cancer, pls donate 1usd😭
Trump has bought many properties during his life, he made most his money in real estate. He loves land and he wants the US to own Greenland. He wants to be known as the great president that got the US more land. His ego is whats most important to him, he wants that americans even in decades from now look at the map and think of the great American President that got them Greenland. On the other hand Europe cant really deny his request. They have made themselves very dependent on the US during the Ukraine War. They have now a very powerful Enemy at their doorstep and need the us for Energy, Trade and Security.
Really, vibes??!! You will lose your shirt in the long-term if you keep betting this way.
Its not vibes. This bet depends completely on human decisions. What motivates the people that are involved? What are their cards?
Trump laundered money with casinos for the mob in Jersey and condos in miami for oligarchs and then became a celebrity and sold everything he could put his name on. He has never been a good business man. He would have made more money taking everything he inherited and putting it into the s&p500.
may netanyahu cure your blindness 🥰
Cool Story bro
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Yes · Yes
Amount
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