PoliticsMarkets

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$167,796 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Yes$168K Vol.

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Holders

0x466a86b6BbCfDaBdec732c9149C2a346236Ac444-1764758072401Papermarket97d ago

kind of vague rules, establish control can mean a lot of things, killing cartels is establishing control over cartels, but this wording makes it seem like only capturing mexican territory counts

DFKPapermarket1K No82d ago

And it does. Invasion markets all have the same rules that have been defined through many jurisprudence of UMA voting and do require the physical occupation and control of land without consent from the occupied party and with the intend to keep it as such for a certain period of time (not just passing through).