In May 2018, the US State Department added HTS to the Nusrah Front's existing December 2012 designation as a foreign terrorist organization (see: https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/). This market will resolve to "Yes " if the U.S. removes Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from it's list of designated foreign terrorist organizations by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
my first trade LOL
trump is more of a pragmatist than the biden administration which cared more about the human rights/personal freedoms aspect (at least on paper). He said Kim Jong un is a "smart guy" so I don't see why the USA couldn't recognize HTS as legitimate to enable better diplomatic relations with syria
maybe even sooner
hmmm nah! there is no chance
nah no way
[link removed] "The Biden administration has decided to maintain the terrorist designation on Syria’s new Islamist rulers for the remainder of President Biden’s tenure, leaving a critical decision about HTS & its leader to the incoming Trump administration."
They won't make this decision in the first 10 days.
Notice the latest date where it's theoretical possible for Biden to announce delisting is 10th January. Congress needs to be notified 7 days before and their need to be a little room for implementation before Trump gets into office. If no delisting is announced by Friday you are essentially betting for Trump
Yeah I don't see what Biden gain from it politically either. I just want to soon cash out
Thats extremely unlikely in that timeframe. HTS must dissolve (and not just announce a plan at a conference), and this require a deal of a national army with the Alawites, Kurds and Druze, and HTS have categorically denied federalization. [link removed] .That makes the deal very difficult to achieve in the short run, and HTS will not disband before there is a definitive safe way to transfer military power. There is still no timeframe for that conference either.
Israel also have just reiterated how they feel about the new Syrian government and it’s abysmal [link removed] Trump would take Israel stance as default.
Let’s say HTS disbands, and Israel soften up, the Trump administration still must put a delisting as high priority and fast track it. They have a lot on their plate their first months. You can argue that it will significantly speed up the process if disbanded, but you can also argue the opposite. Because delisting is a bit irrelevant it will go through the normal procedure and take time.
Yes here s Biden's sanction relief without HTS delisting. Looks you soon have to bet on Trump doing it. "NEW: U.S. to ease aid restrictions for Syria in limited show of support for new government The U.S. is easing some aid restrictions for Syria in a limited effort to support the country's new government, led by a coalition of opposition groups. This move allows humanitarian organizations to deliver essential supplies like water and electricity without case-by-case approvals. " [link removed]
[link removed] "The U.S. is set to announce an easing of restrictions on providing humanitarian aid and other basic services such as electricity to Syria while maintaining its strict sanctions regime, people briefed on the matter told Reuters. The decision by the outgoing Biden administration will send a signal of goodwill to Syria's new Islamist rulers."
Essentialy this is Bidens goodwill policy as he leaves administration. We would have heard if their were any plans of delisting together with this.
Ukraine To Be First European Country To Establish Diplomatic Ties With HTS-Led Syria [link removed]
More "No" Bullish news. Syrian-Americans and the Honorable Antony J. Blinken, the Secretary of State, Convene in Washington, D.C. The key priorities discussed in the meeting included reopening the U.S. Embassy in Damascus to signal commitment to stabilization, lifting sanctions and promoting economic recovery, ensuring humanitarian aid and equitable growth, fostering unity by integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces etc. etc. No mention at all of HTS and their potential delist [link removed]
Some more insider knowledge from Joshua Landis. "I am being told that sanctions will not be lifted tomorrow but in a week or two. A lot of internal argument at NSC over it." [link removed]
Ibrahim agues it's only sanction "waivers". (Limited temporary sanction relief)
The Syrian national dialogue keeps getting postponed "No date decided yet for landmark Syrian national dialogue, triggering concern Some ministers have criticised HTS' lack of transparency in how the conference was being prepared, while some others have yet to receive invites. " [link removed]
Still huge mistrust between minority groups and the interim government. "The people of the southern Druze-majority Suwayda province will demand federalism in the face of aggression and for allowing HTS fighters to enter, a Druze commander said on Wednesday, after HTS-linked fighters were denied access to the province." [link removed]
The HTS Justice Minister is a bit of a disaster for HTS PR. "Damascus: HTS Syrian Minister of Justice Shadi dodges question by reporter on application of Shariah & jizya (religious tax implying legal dhimmitude) on Christians, refers to 90% of Syria being Muslim & says what the people decide per their convictions in parliament will be law" [link removed]
Two old videos of the Justice minister have resurfaced. "Syria's current interim Minister of Justice, Shadi Al-Wais, appears in 2 videos from 2015 in which he oversees the public executions of two women accused of prostitution." I did not watch the video but NSFL TAG. The video shows an execution [link removed]
okay I did, it is blurred out, but she gets shot
Would like to add for Joshua Landis comment. No announcement was made last Friday. Tomorrow would be a good day to do so
The execution video seems to be have been confirmed [link removed]
Hts can dissolute, but it still won’t be enough for them to get delisted by the Trump administration before the resolution date!
I saw the press breifing today, and their were no talk about the Middle East at all. There is a journalist who claims that the administration seriously consider temporary sanction waivers, and this is much more important than delisting. Biden will 99% give the delisting choice to Trump [link removed]
Even the orignal Politco article that started this market was denied by Kirby the day after. It was properly something brought up, but since we have heard zero new information since 10th December, it never got anywhere. If the journalist is correct, then doing sanction relief is superior for the Syrian people than delisting a group that say they will dissolve.
I am also pretty sure the NDAA (Cesar sanction act) is the most likely to be modified for Syria. It is in need to be reactivated here in January and Biden has not yet signed it. Adding such an excemption is much less controversial and would not face the 7 days scrutiny in Congress as fast tracking an HTS delist will. [link removed]
Here I mean a 6 month suspension to set up the time for Syria to convince the Trump administration to remove it entirely
Abou Mohammed al-Joulani, Syria's top Islamic terrorist, refuses to shake hands with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock because she is a woman. [link removed]
Oh God, now its completely certain they will stay a designated terrorist group!
Obviously USA isn’t going to delist Hts now with all these terrorist attacks. Isis flag on back of truck in New Orleans attack. No should be 95c
ISIS now has actually started to attack HTS and somehow started to cooperate with the socialist Kurdish forces against HTS and with new files that show that ISIS worked for multiple bidders the first of whom are The US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia and they also secured some funding from Assad as part of his plan to associate their actions with HTS and the free Syrian army(his opps) so he can Justify to the world his defense agreement with Russia and Hizballah, So keeping HTS categorized as a terrorist group might not be the smartest decision for the US, yet I agree with you that no should be 95c knowing that the US doesn't play smart these days 💀
I think it’s highly unlikely Biden delists Hts in under 3 weeks. His president is nearly over, they are focusing on other issues like transitioning and the like. Now, with regards to Trump, he’s even less likely to delist. Have you read his tweet on Syria? Do some research into his Secretary of State …
How will this resolve if HTS is disbanded before? I assume Yes as it will be removed from the list.
If they are disbanded they will not be removed from the list.
HTS are jihadists, their leaders are former Al Qaeda. The USA will never take the risk of removing them from its terrorist list for several years or even decades. Furthermore, they do not need to remove them from the list to carry out submarine negotiations with the "new Syrian government" given that they are two separate entities.
I looked into it more and I changed my mind again lol. I think you are correct here. The Secretary of state alone have the power to remove FTO (Foreign terrorist Organisation). Biden removed the Houthis on the list back in 2021, and the whole process of this took a bit over an month. Here their is a time constrain as he is a lame duck president, so I think removing HTS is a first priority.
I am still very skeptical of Trump doing any movement towards that, but Biden will take the move for delist. Trump actually have to relist them again and I doubt he will do that. The market only cares about Biden so that is irrelevant. I think their is a slight chance towards delising so prices at 35c is good
It can go either way, but its a hurdle to deal with the Syrian governemnt when they are on the list. HTS is so involved that everything is complicated
I think it’s highly unlikely Biden delists Hts in under 3 weeks. His president is nearly over, they are focusing on other issues like transitioning and the like. Now, with regards to Trump, he’s even less likely to delist. Have you read his tweet on Syria? Do some research into his Secretary of State …
It's quite unimportant all things considered - would just be solving problems for Trump, really.
why is this crashing
yeah could not find something newsworthy
Yes holders think moon landing was real
Now look whose laughing
crazy to see how this market is overpriced
HTS has been dissolved, so the US has NO interest in removing them from the terrorist list. The US can absolutely deal with the new "Syrian government" without contravening their anti-terrorism rules
I mean not yet, they just said they will