8$282K Vol.
9$27K Vol.
10$22K Vol.This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
They just struck Nigeria yesterday
6-7
Rex help
Iran Iraq Syria Somalia Venezuela Yemen Ecuador
actually nvm, I should've done my research better!
What you found brother?
why the fuck is this resolving?
This is basically a bet on whether the USA will bomb Nigeria or change from providing only ISR support to direct support in Mexico, Colombia, or Ecuador (which seems unlikely) or accidentally drop ordnance on some other country. The US has very little to gain from hitting Cuba (it will not cause regime change, and Maduro was a special case) or Lebanon (it's Israel's theatre, not the US's). I think this market deserves to be at 50%. Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Venezuela have already happened, so they're non-issues.
I expect we'll see double digits by summer if the 'Epic Fury' ripple effects continue in the Sahel
5 countries resolved no, so at least 6 countries have been hit, apparently I'm not online enough but 5 are Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Syria and... at least one more. Maybe Yemen?
lebanon to be confirmed
also siria to be confirmed, also equador have been bombed and shoud be added
The US has hit 5 countries so far. High probability on Mexico and Lebanon. Low probability on the Philippines and Colombia. I don't think it can be more than 9 or 10 countries.
Am I counting it correctly?Somalia, Iraq, Iran,Venezuela, Ecuador verified and Yemen, Nigeria, Syria not verified.
Ecuador misleading
That's debatable. Major outlets like Foxnews have said US stikes. [link removed]
it's debatable :) my understanding is while Ecuador did strikes, US are only confirmed to have provided intel and operational support; perhaps US did more but it was only implied and not confirmed. If only Ecuador did strikes, doesn't count. You need a source saying US did air/drone/bomb strikes. There are lots of nice sounding lines from articles out there, but I couldn't find a smoking gun. I would love it if Ecuador counted, it's very good for me, but I don't think the evidence is there, I may be wrong. [link removed] = a source saying Ecuador used fixed-wing aircraft etc...but only mention intel/support from US. Fox saying "US military conducts targeted strike" feels juicy, but I couldn't find anything out that says it was more than a metaphorical strike.
I agree with you. At first read, I found it unlikely that US would be striking cartel target in a friendly country. That kind of direct military action is mostly reserved for terrorist or ai. to weaken adversaries in the disguise of anti narcotic operations.
iran proxy in iraq got hit, why "4" didnt close?
Syria got hit today. Doesn't that count as one?
list goes up to 15... what % of muricans can name 15 countries?
We have the best universities in the entire world
according to you
It’s not even close buddy. We have 8 of the top 10 universities lol
Yeah, full of foreigners
Syria makes 3
7 days in, Somalia and Venezuela done
Attack one country each month, then attack 12 countries in the last month, and 24 countries in a year.
you're a cunt
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