SportsMarkets
U.S. nuclear test by...?
December 31, 202612%
September 30, 20266%
June 30, 20261%
November 30<1%
$669,962 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
December 31, 2026$11K Vol.12%
2%
September 30, 2026$7K Vol.6%
June 30, 2026$42K Vol.1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
never
What about a yes-combat detonation in Iran?
Maybe there's a more powerful weapon against iran than a nuclear weapon. Something more large-scale surgical.
"More large-scale surgical."
there could be, apperntly elon musk was discussing surgical large scale weaponry this week at the white house correspondence dinner
yes no maybe so
No. Nukes are impractical to use and have never been used for a long time. Of course North Korea still does it because it's a toy to them, however UN considers it a war crime to use.
It was a warcrime when we used them on Japan, and that didn't stop us. 🤣
nice
why are people betting the US will have a nuclear program set up in less than 2 weeks? lol
We do have a nuclear program.
Nuclear testing program and your bet is dumb
He said we will test nuclear like other countries did, he might refer to North Korea in 2017 where they did detonate a nuclear warhead, also after the journalist said if he’s going to test with actual warheads he said he cannot tell
I doubt the U.S. goes for a nuclear test anytime soon, but every time tensions spike, people start wondering if Washington might revive old Cold War habits.
A U.S. nuclear test could happen by the end of 2025 if geopolitical tensions escalate, but such a decision would likely be met with international criticism and calls for diplomacy.
hope for world peace
ez moonie [link removed]
I should be holding better to my yesses then
Noope
how is this not a lock when Trump has literally instructed them to do nuclear tests
i feel like they won’t do the actual testing until end of the year. march seems to far off and november seems to close due to government shut down
ya i bought both just in case