This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. will be conducting military operations against Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official policy announcements will qualify. Announcements that the U.S. will assist Israel in carrying out strikes, increase military aid, participate in air to air refueling operations, intelligence gathering or any other action which does constitute a direct kinetic military operations will not alone qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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Why is it not yes following the attack?
I assume some will claim that he did not announce that the US "will" be conducting military operations. He announced that they *had*.
But, in 1 hour, he will likely say what is necessary for this market to resolve to yes
Informal statement, not a “formal policy announcement”, itll go yes just a matter of when
He announced Fordow was bombed a few minutes ago
Yeah, shouldn’t that make this yes?
It should, and will, once he will have spoken, in 1h, I assume
what if he announces it retroactively? For example, if the US strikes Iran, then the following day he announces that he conducted military action?
Doesn't count
Yes it does
Doesnt matter i doubt thisll be the last attack
Taco
Jews calling papa Trump for help
More like papa trump wants to cash in on the “Jews” aka IDF who took down every single defense over Iran soil. So STFU
how is the spread always so far apart on a new bet ? how long does it adjust ?
it all depends on liquidity providers
thanks !
Go make the market with some limit orders and just wait
thanks, i'm slowly figuring it out ..
What u think yes or no