This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs managed by the department, by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If USAID is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled USAID it will count as a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
USAID has ceased to function, resolve to YES
- It has to BE entirely shut down/merge by April 30; not just have locked-in plans to shut down/merge.
This pricing makes no sense
this should resolve to yes,
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Why has this not resolved to yes?
probably because the articles all say july 1st for moving all functions over. so people are waiting to see if that means it is shuttered completely by then.
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yeah sure.
[link removed] After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID. The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States. In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department.
All Trump needs to close USAID is Congress to agree to it since Republicans hold the Majority it is Entirely Possaible, especially in lght of all the waste Fraud and Corruption and the fact it is what the people want and expect
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From what I understand, a bill like this would typically require 60 votes in the Senate, making it highly unlikely to pass. Even if they attempted to include it in a budget reconciliation bill, significant defunding of USAID may be possible, but full abolishment would likely be ruled out since it falls outside the scope of what’s allowed in reconciliation.
I agree it’s low, not 0 though, but a merger is very much in the cards. Which does resolve to a yes
TRO is out
All USAID employees currently on administrative leave shall be reinstated until that date, and shall be given complete access to email, payment, and security notification systems until that date, and no additional employees shall be placed on administrative leave before that date. No USAID employees shall be evacuated from their host countries
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I've changed my position. That freeze will force this to a no.
Marko Rubio indicated yesterday, while in Panama, that he is absorbing USAID. There will still be foreign aid, but not administered by USAID. Trump's Truth Social post today confirms the government direction. This, ladies and gentlemen, is a profitable market.
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lets go close it down!!
lol that’s what pumped this rlly
better buy some more yes then!
just some info for u though, even with all of trumps orders going through there is still a skeleton crew working for usaid until the completion of some projects. which does not satisfy the rules for a yes resolution.
actually i could be wrong i guess semantics from the state department would count as it being eliminated
you too g
USAID is being absorbed into the Department of State extremely quickly. Expect in the next week or two for USAID to cease to exist once the Trump administration can setup funding streams within the Department of State for those essential USAID staffers
In other words, buy Yes while it's cheap
USAID will be gone very soon
Read the rules. If they keep 300 workers, No win
When you cut a whole federal agency's workforce but keep 300 essential staff on, you're about to shut down the whole organization
NYT, “most of the employees expected to stay on are those who specialize in health and humanitarian assistance“ Sounds more like they're going to guarantee a minimum service. We’ll see !
While there hasnt been an outright declaration of the agency's closure, the drastic workforce reduction cutting more than 10,000 employees down to just 290, combined with the cancellation of approximately 800 grants and contracts, strongly signals a functional dismantling of the agency.
Republicans have a majority in congress
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