This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. weighted average tariff, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, reaches 5% or greater for either Q1 or Q2 of 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the dataset has been updated to reflect data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2, currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2025. If no Advance Estimate GDP report for Q2 2025 is released by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, specifically the the average tariff paid as defined here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. Revisions to the data made after the resolution will not be considered.
8.168%
Calling it will be right about 7.91%. Can someone smarter than me tell me what the greater implications for the US economy are? We haven't seen above 5% since the recession in 1975 where unemployment jumped to 9%, GDP dropped by over 3%, and inflation went to 12%.
I think it's going to be extremely close to that number but I'll take the under
weighted average can be tricky
Not really. The formula is: [Weighted Tariff % = ((Customs Duties)/(Goods Import Revenue)) * 100]. We know that customs duties for April, May, and June were $15.6, $22.17, and $28.0 Billion respectively. We know that Import Revenue was $277.9B for April and $275.8B for May. All that's left is June imports, which is likely going to be around $278B. Just from April and May we get about 6.83% on those two months combined, but the final Q2 weighted average still depends on June. Unless June magically saw imports spike above $762.44B, it's going to be over 5%, likely ~7.91%.
don't forget "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"
literally free money, supported by fake news. Thanks, buying more No.
WHY? there is real tariff revenue being received no?
121 billion in tarrif revenue. Sell those no positions now! [link removed]
is it calculated in the [link removed] fed or not? Even if factored in, that massive jump is lower than 4%, which will resolve market to No
Weighted is going to be around 14%
Nope, 22 bln is only for June. Q2 consists from April and May, where weight is dangling around 2.4%.
2.4%? Source? There has also been a lot of tariff revenue in these two months. Additionally June. This will probably end up above 5%
April was about 6% and may was about 7% according to my model.
what's the verdict
Wait why there are so many people with yes
Because they don't read the terms of resolutions and how the average weighted tariff is actually calculated. They think it is just the average 10% tariff and thus it has to be over 5%.
Tarrifs are not applied to everything, just certain products, and not to services. So, this is the average taking into account all the imports that are made. I think it will be higher than 5%, but not so obvious as the market has right now. Probably 70/30 would be more accurate.
If I've got it right, the customs revenues for the quarter so far are: April: USD 19.3 billion May: USD 23 billion If the same amount is generated in June, the average weighted tariff rate is likely to be above 5%. 19.3 + 23 + 23 (assumed) = 65.3 65.3 / 800 = 8.16%
800 billion in goods imports accepted
To hit 5% custom duty receipts has to increase by 60% and the value of goods imported has to fall by 15%. As of now the odds of this happening are less than 10% so I wouldn't be so pessimistic.
thoughts now
When is this over?
Bro did you even read the resolution terms?😂
[link removed] And the tariffs are back
TACO
A US federal court has officially blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect
[link removed]
If 50% tariffs on the EU are announced on June 1st I'm fucked..
If not you're also fucked
No, without the 50% tariff the worst case is 4.5%.
But general tariff rate ist 10%. So why the worst case is 4.5%? There aren't that many exceptions, are there?
average weighted tariff is not the generall tariff rate. The worst case is 60% quarter on quarter surge in tariffs collected and a 15% quarter on quarter drop in imports which implies an average weighted tariff of 4.5%.
Bro your position screwed no matter what Yale it's peg the tariffs at 17.8%-18.3%, Bloomberg 22%, NYC comptroller 12.7%. grok says avg figure is22% this is for quarter 2 2025 weighted avg.
isnt this just free money?
For anyone wondering Q1 2025 is also 2.63 not that it matters as tariffs came into effect April 2nd 😭😭
I get 22.75b in tariffs and 1006 billion in imports so 2.26%
nevermind, i'm stupid
Yeah, so i changed my mind. This is a no
Fuck it i need some capital this is taking too long lmao
I see a lot of people in the comment section who don't read the rules, and clearly don't understand that this is based on the actual final accounting of customs duties assessed.
The St. Louis fed will provide the official documentation. For how much tariffs were actually paid, AFTER it actually happens. This market Is set to expire in the future, after tariffs have been measured.
Go ask Ai to crunch to numbers. the rates is going to blow past 5 % in Q1 alone.
Nothing was in place q1
china was placed, and a lot of others
Q1 is going to be 1.9%
10% tariff had like no effect since tranches of china tariffs were already in place from his first term.
I don't see any rules cuck unless musk eliminates BEA...
How is this not resolved to yes alrdy??
Because the "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" has not published the Q1 or Q2 report that shows a U.S. weighted average tariff of 5% or greater