On August 6, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order sanctioning India through secondary tariffs for its continued purchase of Russian Federation oil. More information can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Russia between August 6 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions could include measures like tariffs, trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, restrictions on specific individuals, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions. Sanctions against Russian citizens or entities which do not directly target the Russian state or members of the Russian government will not qualify. Sanctions in the form of secondary tariffs (i.e., tariffs targeting third-party countries or entities for continuing to trade with Russia) will qualify. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Russia within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, bringing totals up to 50% for some goods, as a response to India's Russian oil purchases. See CNBC, Reuters, and CNN for details.
Sanctions in the form of secondary tariffs (i.e., tariffs targeting third-party countries or entities for continuing to trade with Russia) will qualify. So this market should resolve to Yes!
Not after August 6
Trump would rather sanction Ukraine.
TACO
When the topic is Russia, Trump behaves like a little girl.
because Putin has the tapes of him raping little girls
The resolution of this Polymarket remains overwhelmingly likely to be "Yes." The Executive Order signed on August 6, 2025, which imposes new secondary tariffs related to Russian oil, fulfills the criteria for a "Yes" resolution. The outcome of the Alaska summit does not negate this pre-existing action. Even if no further sanctions are announced by August 31 (which is still a possibility given Trump's warnings and the lack of a breakthrough), the August 6th E.O. has already sealed the "Yes" outcome. My prediction remains 99% "Yes."
Trump is very stupid
Are you seriously assessing the probability of negotiations failing at 25%? Lol
Perhaps a better question: Would failed negotiations automatically result in immediate sanctions on Russia?
That’s the real question .
He has positive PnL, you have negative PnL. Maybe you should change your way of thinking lol
The United States will be ready to introduce very serious economic sanctions against Russia if the parties fail to reach an agreement, Trump said.
The US is ready to impose sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, including China, if negotiations fail - Bloomberg.
Trump prioritises diplomacy over new anti-Russia sanctions - White House
There was a language misunderstanding between Putin and Trump, when Putin says what he really meant, Trump will freak out and impose sanctions
You sure?
White House says secondary sanctions to be implemented on Friday [link removed]
he immediately walked it back and said they had a great call lol