Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?

polymarket admin if you see this i will send nudes if you resolve the market as no🤤

Finale

Yes. Trump signed an executive action on February 10, 2025, removing Canada's steel tariff exemption and increasing aluminum tariffs specifically on Canada. This qualifies as an additional Canada-specific tariff enacted within the market's timeframe, meeting all the stated resolution criteria

i also asked chatgpt to do deep research, and it was yes

Whale bitch

Is it still possible to place bets on this but?

Cash out if you can, it'll be 'Yes'

this is so sad.

From a purely technical standpoint, "Yes" seems to be the right call based on the rules.. But it looks like most users didn't interpret the market the way it's currently being proposed. Future markets should be more clear to avoid confusion and "gotcha" resolutions. At this point it could be a decent idea to just 50-50 (or cancel?) this market. These markets shouldn't be resolved based on technicalities, but based on common sense.

Yes, I agree. Markets like these defeat the entire point of Polymarket. You cannot have a market trading at less than 10 cents since a week ago, then resolve to 100 based on data from nearly 2 months ago! It is ridiculous and is hurting Polymarket's credibility in a big way.

It's intentional, it's not the first case.

Woah I don't have any money in this but it will be simply WILD if polymarket lets this resolve as a yes. Such a shame. This could be such a good website..

Pretty bad UX for users to be told the market was dead in Feb, even if I agree this should have resolved several times earlier due to the rules. I was the biggest YES holder in this market for a long time, then I gradually left because I thought that no matter what EO was passed it wouldn't get resolved.

Yeah I think that they need to implement statute of limitations on resolving markets

If the action that resolved market happened more than a week before resolution proposed it is invalid unless supported addition actions within said week

Why didn’t you propose? Next time, write to me if you like, i can support 🙂

so the market noticed 2 month after of the removal ?

They scammin us bro not Noticing :(

just a uqestion whats happening w this one?

Insane odds here for “No” buyers, even the slightest bit of shaky feet from “Yes” will result in massive upside

The truth you mean ;)

This is some bs. They should just null the entire market. It should have already resolved on February 10th if that was accurate. I made a bet yesterday that no additional tariffs would be put on before May and then it's retroactively applied to February 10th? lol. What a joke.

It's not their first scam on users.

Happy to see a correct resolution on these

i ended up only holding 6kish shares into resolution. a $15k position that either goes to 16k or 0k on a clarification is too big for me

Removing exemptions is not adding new tariffs, what a joke.

So weird, so youre telling me now I can bet on this market with no downside for an hour?

according to chatgpt there is no additional tariff only applicable on Canada [link removed]

glad the output from an illiterate prompt to chatGPT is all we need to determine markets. Someone tell UMA they can shut down now

so true

The U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, initially imposed in 2018 under national security grounds, had been suspended for Canada following the 2019 Joint Statement establishing a trade monitoring mechanism. However, on February 10, 2025, President Trump issued Proclamations 10895 (aluminum) and 10896 (steel), revoking all country-specific exemptions and reinstating a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports effective March 12, 2025

Clearly the market was pricing in no additional tariffs until someone decided to try to pull a fast one by spiking and disputing today. Given the pricing of the market up until today, this should resolve no tomorrow.

clearly the market was illiquid and missed something that satisfied the payout criterion. You cant just incorrectly resolve a market because no one noticed that it could have resolved a while ago. This is why it jumped once everyone became aware of the proclamation and is also why you should research before bonding random things.

bought yesterday at 2 cents :)

anyone help to dispute

I guess i shouldnt be surprised that the people who priced in a 2% chance of an event that had already happened happening would throw away another $1500 on disputes lol

if I sign an EO that tariffs all imports, and in it I spell out my particular gripes with each country and why I'm retaliating against it in particular, and in this process I end up specifying every country in the world--have I just signed a “global tariff,” or a tariff “specifically targetting Canada”?

That is not what happened here though. There are a handful of countries mentioned and he specifically lists reasons why those countries in particular are being targeted. The change specified here 1. resulted in additional or increased tariffs on Canada for reasons specific to developments the steel trade between our countries since 2018, 2. Was not a new global tariff.

Also the Brazil tariff market already resolved YES on the same proclamation as this so the interpretation of if this action counts or doesnt for these markets has been settled

my point is that by your standard all global tariffs could also be considered ‘specific’ because Trump explains his rationale for them with examples from individual countries. Can you cite the source that says it is targeting Canada in particular?

In this case, the purpose of the Feb rule change was to “close existing loopholes and exemptions to restore a true 25% tariff on steel” (per the White House fact sheet), not to single out Canada. You yourself say that it mentions a “handful of other countries,” but that is again misleading… it actually updates the tariffs of 36 countries. All of them, including Canada, received the same treatment: their exemptions from the 2018 steel tariffs were revoked, so now they are all subject to the same tariff as the rest of the world. That makes this a global tariff, so this should resolve to no. You’ve arbitrarily determined that Canda’s exemption in particular was revoked because of “reasons specific to developments the steel trade between our countries since 2018,” but that’s not evident in Proclomation 10896 or its fact sheet ([link removed] What this does say is that he wanted to prevent unexempt countries (like China) from dodging his 2018 tariffs by routing their steel through any of the 37 exempt countries, not specifically Canada.

You should also take a look at the Department of Commerce's updates to the tariff schedule, which is where Trump’s directives in Proc 10896 were subsequently implemented. It doesn’t mention any country specifically, but just says that no country can be exempt from the steel tariff anymore: “No claim for entry or for any duty exemption or reduction shall be allowed for the iron or steel products enumerated” ([link removed]