This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives over 50% of all votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
So we are waiting till December 17?
Why is this so low? Where are you guys getting your data from? I just found the market, but I thought Trump is at 49.9 rn.
Shhhh 🤫
Read the rules
I did, but the site linked is unreadable on a smartphone.
hmm, 2 of 4 links are not working anymore and one is wrong
For real though, how could this be resolved as 50% according to Atlas...
Votes for Kennedy are invalid, do not count
Yeah but will Atlas care about that, and the resolver, I wonder
Also, with Kennedy's votes being gone, I think Trump is still shy of 50%, since everybody else also gets a slight proportional bump, it would be enough only if he had 49.93% I think
The numbers are not final
True, although recounts, disputes between states, etc might take some time. Not for me right now, I bought in thinking on Dec 17 resolution. I wish you the best :D
Popular
50.2 %
About 49.4%
Low of 50%
50%
50.56%
The data below is aggregated exclusively from state-wide reports published by state election agencies.
50.56%
Site won't open atm. Will check again in a bit and will share link. There's a note when you go to election results.
Well i can't say but what i can say is that the odds are not per current prices.
[link removed]
Likely some of you have already noticed, but there are now two versions of the same truth on uselection atlas.
When resolution? Looking pretty good for "yes" shares at the moment.
49.78%
no
Max pain is we get stuck in this market forever. Dispute upon dispute, recount upon recount, Trump V Kamala, Reps V Dems etc. etc.
Low possibility
Ultra undervalued
Lost a lot of ground now 64k was 49
95 k deficit
Just wanted to bring up a concern (I already assume I lost my money on my YES bet). But this resolution source has a wonky "write-in" ballot counting system. In comparison to NBC which has 49.996% to Trump & 65K more votes counted, USElectionAtlas has him at 49.92%
In particular, the rules here say that their dataset must include the certified vote totals for all U.S. States (wording seemingly allows for a superset of votes - I.e., invalid votes like write-ins in states that don't allow). However, if it doesn't match - what happens then? Genuine question! Not trying to swing this market like A-holes are doing over on the "More than 2% votes to 3rd parties" market are
And in particular, the disparity between NBC & USElectionAtlas seems to stem almost entirely because of 3rd party counting conventions (1.81% on NBC to 3rd parties, 1.9% here).
I mean, either way it's under 50% for now. And the wording in the rules seem to indicate that all votes cast should perhaps also include invalid votes unlike (perhaps?) NBC/CNN are reporting?
Theoretically majority should converge on what is generally acceptable as the truth.
Every market is corrupt, they are posting low numbers just for the markets.. should be NBC,AP,FoX, they called the elections
Tend to agree or a aggregate
Pensylvania recount starts today i believe
His exact percentage is at 49.97 46191 off 50%
Where do u see it
add up all votes divide by2, subtract Trumps total,
46k votes under 50, but needs 53 % of remaining ballots to pull this off
1% left, He needs 53% of remaining votes, Chat GPT gives him 60% odds.