On February 1, Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which removes the 25% general tariff on Canada by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 25% without removing it will not qualify. Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
With China suspending rare earth materials shipments to the US there's a chance a deal is reached to secure minerals from Canada
Today's tariffs are the April 2nd tariffs and this market is for the Feb 1st tariffs
90 day pause on all tariffs!!!
Fentanyl Tariffs are staying on
You send me the $2000 I accidentally sent to your alt account
Karma will get you
According to the rules, it's clear. Am I the only one who thinks this is free money? ha ha
The problem here is that this market is not very efficient. Massive slippage resulting from just a small order here. Not enough buyers on either side to properly reflect realtime sentiment.
Romving tariffs on USMCA products should, in my opinion, be considered general tariffs, and this market should resolve to yes.
What does general mean, genius? It means in most cases. Not all cases :p
General tariffs means in all cases, genius - "general tariffs - a standard increased tariff rate for all imports into the United States regardless of the country of origin"
If it's going to be this complicated to decide outcomes, polymarket needs to make rules much more precise and measurable to leave less room for interpretation and ambiguity.
Agreed. At the very least we should start seeing UMA returning P3 50/50 more often, against ambiguous undecideable crap
USMCA covers 99% of goods between Canada and us. This should be yes already, and this shows how broken Polymarket is. We need official arbitrators; we can't keep letting the community decide. The truth shouldn’t be a democratic process
I'm a little stumped on this one. Tariffs went into effect Tuesday and per the clarification "any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal." and "Actions which remove the general 25% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies."
What am I missing here? Surely it's not 50/50 because we aren't sure the executive action will be formally published by May
The executive order is out lmfao, the general tariff is still in action as only usmca goods are exempt
When does it stop being “general tariff” then? If Trump said everything was exempt now except for bubblegum we wouldn’t resolve? Between CUSMA, energy and potash we’re well past 50% of imports exempted now
It’s a difficult one. I don’t think it’s a general tariff either but by rules, I don’t think it is gonna count.
"Duties imposed to address the flow of illicit drugs across our borders are now: 25% tariffs on goods that do not satisfy [link removed] Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin."
Not enough to resolve Y.
Someone should propose yes. Read the last portion of the additional context. Tariffs are suspended
the market price at almost 50 50 tells you this is not enough to resolve for yes. Why dont you go ahead and donate half of your $750 to the disputer?
damn why couldn’t you guys trust me and buy my shares that I tried to pump :/
homie thinks hes car 🤣🫵
I’m a baby car lil bro. I will pump and dump on you in the future 🙏
sure thing buddy
[link removed] “ White House Official: US pauses until April 2nd tariffs on Canada and Mexico USMCA trade.” read the additional context. “ any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal.”
GGs
only applies to USMCA goods
I will only be cheerful when I reach your pnl
GG for Yes
Canadian and Mexican goods might only face reciprocal tariffs on April 2 if the two countries make progress on fighting fentanyl, Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested to CNBC.
Trump said the reciprocal tarifs would be added on top of to the current tarrifs
“one-month delay for automakers“ it's still a no, He has just confirmed that there will be no cuts.
[link removed]
“ any suspension (regardless of whether it is temporary) after a tariff has gone into effect, will qualify as a removal”
Suspension of the general tariff or just a specific sector? The rules sucks, i’m out
doesnt count as yes, the 25% stay and are NOT removed, so there is no suspension.
There is no “general tariff” if 20% of goods are exempt
Why? 80% is more than 20% in my book.
technically there absolutely is and this market is about removing the 25% general tariff.
Basically revoking the current executive order.
Still a no for Mexico right ?
Looks like option on the table is tariffs won't apply to majority of goods (USMCA rules of origin
If the announcement on March 5th is only a reduction or partial exemption of tariffs, rather than a complete cancellation of the universal 25% tariff, then the current action does not meet the market's "yes" condition and the market should be judged as "no". Further observation is needed to determine whether the subsequent official documents clearly state the "removal" rather than "adjustment" of tariffs.
Noice
Trump's big ego is definitely not going to walk back on his tariffs before a long time.