This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by July 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
The 22nd Amendment is not a wall. It is a puzzle with cracks. It bars being elected more than twice. But it does not bar someone from serving again - for example, by becoming VP and taking over via resignation. That is not a theory. Cornerstone Law explains: "The 22nd Amendment only requires that someone not be elected... someone who was elected to two terms on his own is still eligible to be Vice President and to rise to the Presidency." Yes, the 12th Amendment adds complexity. But it says no one ineligible for President can be VP. Is a two-term president ineligible? Or just unelectable? Scholars like Peabody argue the VP route remains open. Bannon and others are already probing this. VP ticket talk is circulating. The idea that "only consecutive terms" are banned is being floated. States are rushing to reaffirm the 22nd - why, if there is no threat? Now look at the market. Over 40k YES bids sit at 1-2c - smart tail-risk money. The 3-5c range is stacked with early exiters showing no conviction. Above 6c is thin - one credible news event and this contract gaps. This is not a bet on success. It is a bet on narrative, disruption, and pressure. Trump does not need to win - he just needs to try. At 2c, you are not betting on certainty. You are betting on volatility.
Dude he'll be dead by then. His 400 words vocabulary has already shrunk by half and he hasn't brought a proper sentence to completion in months.
He's more likely to be assassinated than die of natural causes lol.
bro lost 90% of his bet size haha
I don't know if he will but anything he mentions about it will make the price go up so in my opinion this is way undervalued
This would never happen for 2 reasons first. Even if they could get the amendment repealed (Never happen anyway) there is no guarantee here would win a third term and second why would they want to give the competition an opportunity to get more terms in the future. If you like cutting off your nose to spite your face
doubtfully
Not within the first 6 months, but later on sure
The rules couldn't be written any worse.: So Trump just has to sign a piece of paper?
Please Trump, let’s go!
Not within the first 6 months, but later on sure
I think he will do it later on. In his mind it is allready his 3rd term but he was denied his second one. So he wants to make up for that - Trump logic
Well he was denied it initially, but he's got it now, so he'll serve this term and be put like everyone else.
Not within the first 6 months, but later on sure
gosh i'm so tempted to put a 1000 tears on yes.
Do it so I can buy no at a better price please
Absolutely terribly-written rules. A constitutional amendment would not qualify for a "yes" resolution. I'm not betting anything on this crap.
If enough evidence of fraud for 2020 is found, the court could rule that he gets a 3rd term. Per the rules, that's "Yes", but it's not really a repeal.
US courts drag their feet, so the likelihood of this happening in the timeframe specified is extremely low.
He needs to sign a bill into law. A court ruling he gets a 3rd term wont change the law. Also, no court would ever do that wtf
thats not how the U.S works lol. no court ruling can grant him a 3rd term.
Are libtards actually retarded?
Yes
This platform is only trump markets now like wow - next up will trump sneeze
By what date?
I was about to like the comment and then saw I made it few months ago
"Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions." so it is sure "yes"
Reeeeeee
If you bet no your money is locked up for 9 months.
Isnt it locked up regardless?
This will face significant resistance
No fucking shot