Trump EO easing access or decriminalizing weed by Friday?

That was quick - it's published. Happy Christmas! [link removed] DOT gov/documents/2025/12/23/2025-23846/increasing-medical-marijuana-and-cannabidiol-research

So when is this gonna be resolved?

Just as soon as a whitlister proposes. Shouldn't be too long, as it's a easy one for them to confirm (no working out consensus of reporting etc.)

He’s just finishing what the last guy started, but with a Trump flair. The EO doesn't fix the state-federal conflict or stop possession arrests. It’s a "step," sure, but "common sense" medical research isn't the "Legalize It" party everyone wanted.

ETA. Just checked, and Biden signed an order on the 18th last December. Published Dec 26.

Polyscam?

how does “no” doesnt win yet? it ended yesterday and its not in the official source?

Trump clearly signed the EO by Friday, however the rules say it must appear in Federal Register. Anyone proposing Yes before that happens could lose their $750 bond in UMA dispute (P4 - early request).

Markets that behave that way include a time-out on the resolution criteria (e.g. consensus of creditable reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date). This market says "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order easing access to cannabis by December 19, 2025" and then says that "This market will use the Federal Register as the resolution source", but it doesn't say that the resolution source needs to be updated by 19 Dec. If you have a look at the Register, you'll see entries have a signed date, and a published date that's 3-5 days later: it's the signed date that matters. The only interesting thing that could happen is if the Register erroneously recorded the signed date as (say) 20 Dec, despite us being able to verify elsewhere that it was definitely signed on 18 Dec. Short story - GG, and sell to keep the $1.08.

It surprises me how few people bought "yes" when the market outcome was already predetermined

this comment section is all rage bait

trump signed the order on december 18. the first sentence of the rules says that the market will resolve to yes if he signs it by december 19 11:59pm. clearly, that is what has happened. just because the order posts on the FR website after december 19, does not mean the market will resolve to no. the fact that the estimated resolution date is december 19 does not matter. this is just an estimated date.

Visibility is not the standard, verifiability through the resolution source is. The market resolves based on what the Federal Register shows, not on video evidence. If a video were enough, the Register would serve no purpose. If the order does not appear there by the cutoff, the condition is not met under the market’s own rules.

Just sell already? Hopeless

Yeah, that's the point. Even if he signed it, the resolution source is what actually matters. As an example. there are markets like bitcoin price. Even if the price is within the range - they still use specific source of truth. So basically source of truth is what matters. All those articles are nothing

It clearly states that it needs to be added to the Federal Register by tonight. If it is not, this market will close as “No.” I understand that he signed the order, but the wording here is clear.

A Resolution source: "Because the White House cannot submit a document to the Office of the Federal Register (OFR) until the president signs it, there is always a delay (at least one day, usually several days) between the time the president signs a document and its publication." Therefore, source suggests we should wait a few days.

He signed it yesterday, not today. There has already been a one day delay, and extending it any further undermines the integrity of the bet.

In any case, the resolution source is the last resort and it tells us to wait next document batch

Why would the resolution source be treated as a last resort? It is the source of the resolution, so it is the only thing that matters in this case. Or does Polymarket just do its own thing and not follow what it lists as the resolution source? I am confused.

There is plenty of precedent where markets remain open to await the official publication. Even if the Federal Register updates after the market's deadline, the market will still resolve Yes as long as the document confirms the signature date was within the timeframe.

If the market was intended to not resolve tonight, it would be listed in the rules. The estimate is for resolution tonight. Either is EO is posted by 11:59 tonight, or the market resolves as No. The rules make no mention of a delay. There are plenty of consensus reporting based markets for this. You did not read the rules. Odds are already shifting to reflect this reality.

Every EO market uses the Federal Register as the resolution source. That just means we wait for the Register to update to verify the date. The requirement is that he signs it by Friday, not that the government publishes it by Friday.

That is not correct. The Federal Register is not just a verification tool for the date. It is the authoritative source that determines when an executive order legally exists for public notice. If the resolution source is the Federal Register, then publication timing matters. An order being signed but not published does not satisfy a condition that relies on the Register as the source of truth. If publication is delayed past Friday, then by definition the Register does not show a Friday action, and the condition is not met. The market cannot assume validity based on signing alone when the resolution source explicitly requires confirmation via the Federal Register.

Your argument is invalid, a resolution source tells UMA where to look. It does not introduce a secondary deadline requiring the proof to exist by the end date, this can be seen in the Gaza strike markets where resolution is commonly delayed until the resolution source provides an exact timestamp.

Furthermore, if this extends beyond today, it sets a precedent that breaks the other market as well. By that logic, marijuana would already count as rescheduled in 2025 even if the update does not appear until 2026. That would mean it is effectively done and just waiting on publication. I understand the argument you are making, but it opens too many cans of worms and creates contradictions across markets.

That comparison does not hold. Delayed resolution is different from delayed occurrence. In the Gaza markets, the underlying event already happened and the delay is only to confirm details. Here, the occurrence itself is defined by what appears in the resolution source. If the Federal Register does not show it by the end date, then the condition has not been met, regardless of later publication.

"Any executive order signed within this market’s time frame that eases access to cannabis will qualify" The problem for your position is that the register includes the signing date. So the market will just wait the 3-5 days it seems to take to publish these things (maybe a little longer if nothign is being published, but if people expect it to be).

EO signed Thursday, Dec 18. Moves weed to Schedule III. Eases research and lowers taxes for shops, but recreational is still technically illegal federally.

Resolution source is the federal register, which will not have the EO posted until after this market is supposed to resolve. No mention of using the white house website or other reporting. The answer is clearly no, unless we're supposed to expect market resolution to wait until the outcome changes.

I think based on the spirit of the market, it should wait until ~Dec 31st because there is credible sources proving that the signing happened today, only makes sense.

The spirit of the market? The rules are the rules sir.

the market has no rules about resolution timing

the market was created yesterday, with an estimated resolution date of today. The only resolution source under consideration is the federal register, which virtually always takes at least 3 days to post and never posts on weekends. The rules are clear.

I agree, the rules are very clear.

[link removed]

Not the Federal Register.

fck the somalian

we know it s no

ez

it wont be published on the fed register before 3-5 days so the market cant use fed register for resolution on friday ?? or its going to be no

i belive u

Signed.

But what if it doesnt appear in Federal Register till tomorrow evening?

All that matters is the signing based on previous markets, resolution will wait until it is in the registrar.

Disagree.

NIGGA