This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede territory under its control in Russia’s Kursk Oblast is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ukraine has no territory left in Kursk so unless they do a new offensive and negotiate a peace in the next 5 weeks, must resolve to no
No, there is a small piece of the land: near the Tyotkino, the opposite bank of the Seym river. Absolutely useless from the military point of view, but, however, what is captured is captured
This is an interesting part of the rule: Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
As it stands then this will almost certainly resolve to no, as there is nothing to cede.
lol Bet .. no more territory to cede
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There is no official announcement from Ukraine, but Russia and more than enough of other sources are reporting that it regained full control on Kursk Oblast. How long must we wait for it to resolve?
At the end of the year, 31 dec, because exists chance that Ukraine gains some territory of Kursk oblast again.
On 26 April, Russia claimed it had driven Ukrainian forces out of the region. The claim was denied by the Ukrainian government, who said that while Ukrainian forces were in a "difficult position", they had resisted encirclement and pushed back Russian assaults.[281][282][283] Russia also acknowledged for the first time that North Korean soldiers had been fighting alongside Russian troops, with Russian General Valery Gerasimov praising the "heroism" of North Korean troops.[284]
On 22 April, The Telegraph reported that following a 10-day battle Russian forces recaptured St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery in Gornal, one of the last remaining Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast.[280]
Two villages left. Both contested.
GG
Keep in mind what we are betting on is "what will happen", NOT "what you wish to happen"
Things going to the right direction. "Russia pushes Ukrainian troops from one of their last footholds in Kursk region, army says"
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they're prob clearing the territory being captured before advancing further.
It is obvious that Kursk Oblast was returned by military action and all who bet now "Yes" is just throwing their money in window
"If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution."
In Saudi Arabia, agreements were reached under which Ukraine withdrew its troops from the Kursk region. This is exactly what happened immediately after the agreement.
buy more bitch
Im waiting for you in the orderbook please bet more yes. The dnc needs funding for 2028
Will it be an automatic "No" victory if the russians take over the Kursk region? As far as I know, the Ukrainians are withdrawing their troops from there
Tough question. The current wording is rather non-specific and if there is a case that Russia will kick Ukraine out of Kursk region now, but later within a year Ukraine will enter there again and further agree to withdraw as part of the agreement, then this market should be resolved as “Yes”
Am I correct that in case of Russia regaining the territory through military action, it will be considered as "No"?
I hope so. My no stake is based off the assumption that Russia will make an spring push to retake this territory before sitting down to negotiate.
same
Tryna kill eachother is basically the exact opposite of "mutual agreement" so i think you're safe
the resolution of this bet depends on whether a deal is reached, not who occupies the land by resolution date. So I'd say yes
Tough question. The current wording is rather non-specific and if there is a case that Russia will kick Ukraine out of Kursk region now, but later within a year Ukraine will enter there again and further agree to withdraw as part of the agreement, then this market should be resolved as “Yes”
Ok so the strategy here is that whether there is a peace in 2025 + Kursk is exchanged in it + Kursk is not captured by Russian forces before the ceasefire. I think it is quite likely.
If a deal is reached, definitely, as Ukraine has no interest in Kursk other than to use it as a bargaining chip. However, as time passes, Russia is closing in. There is also uncertainty on whether Ukraine will sign a deal, as Ukraine is not involved in the peace negotiations,
nah