GeopoliticsMarkets

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

$838,999 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

December 31$108K Vol.

June 30$731K Vol.

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Holders

SubashChandraBosePapermarket1K No1d ago

@RiseFromTheAshes if you have even 1 brain cell, sell all of the Yes shares now

LiquidatedDegenPapermarket2d ago

Schizo TSYBKA can't predict anything. All he does is buys NO in hopes that NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. Then he farms his followers by selling after he makes X post. He is truly a parasite.

rafael7Papermarket17h ago

Buy Y dumbfuq

N3ronPapermarket2d ago

спасибо ватникам, ура патриотам и полезным идиотам из запада за мои будущие х6. Без массовой мобилизации удержание Крыма невозможно, с массовой мобилизацией очень высокий политический риск. Одно дело когда ты у себя сидишь в условном Усть Урюпинске и поливаешь грязью ВСУ, другое дело когда тебе приходит повестка и ты понимаешь что тебе осталось жить 2 недели до момента когда к тебе прилетит дрон в голову.

bibibubuPapermarket2d ago

хахахаха западенец

kalsarikannitPapermarket2d ago

Westerner useful idiot here, you're welcome

SuinagPapermarket2d ago

Чел ты живешь в выдуманном мире, включи голову.

smaIIfishPapermarket3d ago

Yes is still overpriced but its not impossible

0x798F98dC26CccBb7061E02F43De4E55f6362d7d3-1772125864204Papermarket4d ago

Russian is retreating in Kherson towards Crimea, not fuel and all supply trucks and trains are being destroyed. Rich from Moscow stuck in Crimea because there's no gas. its going to get dicey for Putin.