This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why is this 0 CENTS? The no side still has to prove that the bitcoin was sold. It could’ve been a contract, not on the Blockchain.
Well I guess the universe used up the craziness on $TRUMP & $MELANIA
Nooooooo never give up!
To POLYMARKET. I appreciate that you corrected the year to 2025, but you also need to correct the date. It should be at noon on inauguration day, 20 January. You see, the new president doesn’t take office until then so it doesn’t make sense for this to end at midnight the previous day. Thank you for your attention.
I am melting!!! Save me, Biden!
What if the sell has already occurred but it will be publicly announced already after the inauguration?
Honestly, a plain reading of the rules indicates that it cannot resolve to know unless there is proof of no. But I am guessing the no side is going to disagree and there will be a fight on UMA.
[link removed]
Nice! Just so you know, I have three hummingbird feeders. You’re welcome anytime.
Are we toast, Mr. Hummingbird?
Hummingbird, where are you? Give me Hope.
here is more hope!!
[link removed]
no holders need to read the rules more carefully I think. Pretty unlikely the government is going to announce that they did not sell bitcoin
Exactly!!
You have a legitimate point. I think there’s a real possibility that the US has already sold their BTC but hasn’t announced it yet. Unfortunately, this market will close on January 20th, even if the US doesn’t announce anything by then
The US is probably never going to announce that they didn’t sell BTC during a specific period, so it would be impossible to close this market as NO based on your logic
My logic is simply based on a plain reading of the rules. If what you are saying were true, why wouldn’t the rules simply state that yes requires an announcement or whatever
What rules are you seeing. I see this - This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
wtf are u talking about it doesnt ssay anywhere they need to make a statement saying they arent selling it saysThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". nothing about having to anonounce weather they did sell it or they didnt just needs to happen or not on chain data is all thats needed
Same ones as you. Those rules clearly indicate no burden of proof, meaning that yes and no both need announcements to make their case.
what you smoking bro, i want some of that hopium too
Pot But it’s totally a coincidence
The burden of proof is on yes as per the rules.
Despite circulating rumours, the US government has made no moves to sell its massive Bitcoin holdings seized from the Silk Road and other cases. Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham verified that approximately $6.44 billion in Bitcoin remains under government control, dispelling reports of a Department of Justice-sanctioned liquidation.
Long Answer: Here is a full video breaking it down from someone actually involved with US Gov seized crypto (to be fair he doesn't believe the sale would occur before the inauguration, timestamp 37:00) [link removed]
To get ahead of "transfer of coins doesn't equal a sale" comments in case we have a Sunday night surprise, here you go... Short Answer: Since the OTC sale would occur between the US Marshals and Coinbase Prime, the sale would be decided/sold before off-chain, then the actual movement of coins on chain would be the execution of that agreement (if sent to Coinbase prime.)
It would be politically beneficial to sell it, I think. Prices are high, overvalued one might say, so it would seem like smart money to cash in. And it doesn't give Donald trump an easy time to establish this strategical bitcoin reserve - he would have to take responsibility for buying it, instead of saying 'it was already there from previous administrations'. However, it's very late in the game and they won't feel any need to announce it as it's basically a political trick, and you don't announce you're doing political trickery, generally
Put your money where you mouth is Mr. Sideline
Biden must sell Bitcoins to interfere with Trump and Musk goals on cryptos
they could just buy it back 5 days later lol if they did
selling BTC is not on the blockchain. If they send X amount of BTC to Coinbase, and thats reported by MSM, this will not resolve to YES. MSM can not know what the US Government does with the Bitcoin once its been sent to Coinbase. The only way this can resolve to YES if the Government announces a sale. And why would they do that?
BS Even if the government does not announce the sale, a transaction from Coinbase to external wallets (or fiat payouts) could be traced and flagged by blockchain analysts or Coinbase disclosures
they just sent .51c lol
Zero chance that Biden administration sells bitcoins right before the inauguration
the court order allowing DOJ to potentially sell bitcoin happening on december 30th, its being recycled now to explain the btc price dump, but that doesnt really make much sense.... [link removed]
They have no reason to announce it
its on the blockchain tho... they will have no reason to
selling is not on the blockchain
Exactly. Yes, it is way underpriced. They’re not going to announce that they did not sell bitcoin.
Why is no one talking about the market Rules saying January 2024? Lol good luck getting this resolved to yes even if they sell
Did they edit it? I see the rules as 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".'
yes
scary they can edit rules without telling us
thats fucked though, rules should stand as they are. There should def be an edit history
noooo God please no