PoliticsMarkets
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 315%
April 30<1%
June 30<1%
$5,897,969 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$1M Vol.5%
June 30$481K Vol.<1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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tom midnight
they never officially admit it but NATO gonna split
27 april
how
lol
WSJ - Trump Says NATO ‘Won’t Be There’ for U.S. in the Future
source? link?
If he writes a letter of denunctiaion is enough
why is it quiet here
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not so fast april
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After settling Iran, NATO, see you again
What’s funny about the rules is the notice of denunciation, per Article 13, must be sent to the US. So the underlying should be more like, “the US sends notice to the US that it’s leaving NATO.”
Brooo
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Doesnt matter what Trump said. To initiate withdrawal from NATO he need 2/3 of congress. What a chance?-0.
He can step out of the integrated command . Is there a market for that?
havent seen
Lol the rules state that to win YES, its only enough for trump to say they leave NATO
Read the rules carefully before you lost money. Actions,not words. According to Trump words he is already imperor of eath and galactic who started golden century for humankind,stopt all wars and solved all problems. Action mean that 2/3 of congress should vote for NATO exit and it will be a start of exit procedure which will take a year.
Even if he posts that US will withdraw, thats enough for the market resolving YES ;)
lol
Nope. Only if a formal process is initiated: "formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO". A tweet from Trump, one of many extreme statements with zero follow through, would not count.
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People need to understand that those who are voting yes april 30 are not thinking that is possible. Only that will be a major talk point in the news in a couple of hours and the odds will increase. Cashout doesnt need to be 100 or nothing
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