This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 New York City mayoral general election is greater than 9%. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Mamdani’s certified vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. This market will resolve based on the official certified results as published by the New York City Board of Elections. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.
Nice
much respect for ur huge win.
Official (confirmed): 50.78% (9.46% margin gap). Good always defeats evil.
Shiyetttt
9,46% lol. Not even close
where do you see these results?
The fuckers literally said nothing about the election.
are we losing?
They put the final results in big brown envelopes and gave them to a fat man, but I don't think that fat man has put the brown envelopes into the internet yet.
Big time.
Confirmed final MOV 8.93%, pack it up
Where did you find it?
I just made it up
source?
Looks like we will resolve to NO
when is that happening?
Big day is tomorrow, right?
really? how do yk?
[link removed]
Can anyone explain to me why we should expect Mamdani’s MOV to increase at all?
1)There are some uncounted election day votes, relatively more of them in brooklyn which is the most pro mamdami borough.2) affidavit votes lean towards younger people and first voters so thats easily mamdami. 3)mail in votes are used by both young and old voters, heavily left leaning which is relevant given that cuomo will end up with some amount of centrist and right leaning voters. Overall I would be surprised if Mamdami's MOV doesnt increase, its just that I dont see it increasing enough. 1) will barely move it 2)again too little votes to move it much 3)old coumo votes will make the split close
I think that is fundamentally flawed analysis, because yes - mail in ballots are left leaning, but that doesn’t mean they are Mamdani leaning. In fact, everything I can see seems to indicate that mail in ballots are likelier to lean Cuomo. This isn’t the typical left vs. right dynamic here. This is left vs. lefter.
I think it’s safe to assume that the democratic vote will split roughly the same way it went during the last round of the primaries, but with a slight Cuomo skew.
This market has been so wild wtf
I'm pretty lost on why people love the under so much tbh, Mamdani is obviously going to increase his margin significantly. Just a question of if it'll be enough to get over 9.
Just look at the primary election night result vs official primary election result. Even within democrats, the final round increased by 0.8% margin. When you take into account the republican factor here, the margin increase will likely even be more. 0.2% is be easy lol
There're only about 70k vote still counting
so it's basically impossible
The general election and primary election are different things.
Less than a week anyways. Let's see by then
vote that heavily favors Mamdani, no? 70K is not too far from what I have too ig
I don't think military votes favor mamdani lmao
2021 was 102k
in 2021 the shift from unofficial to official increased total votes by around 10.6%, in 2025 the voter turnout was significantly higher, applying the pattern of unofficial vs official results of 2021 results in the final lead at roughly 8.9%. if we purely base it on historical data and no other bias, this is a 50/50
this is really not good analysis :(
Why do you think he will increase his MOV?
@aenews2 Yr washed
Thanks
When this going to resolve?
It should be November 29.
Bruh on a SATURDAY??? You’re outa your mind. It’s t will be like tuesday or Wednesday of next week
Board of Elections Commisioners meeting on Dec 2nd, possibly then
They don't stop working on Saturdays, so who knows.
I’m 99% sure they absolutely do not work over holidays or weekends
It's written on the site. Go check Canvass Information and Mail Ballots on the NYC Board of Elections site, you'll see they're working on week-ends from 10 am to 4 pm. However, I give you the point that they won't work tomorrow neither this Friday. So maybe I'm wrong with my assumption that the results would be posted on this Saturday, I'm sorry, but typically the results are posted about 4 weeks after the elections. Also, on the site, you can see who is registered for the mail-in ballots, updated today at 3 p.m. E.T. While it won't give you the results, it could show you a certain trend about those results.
"Who is registered", I mean by affiliated partys.
Confirmed final MOV IS 8.93%
from?
from?
from?
@sdxd @whjsnebd i just made it up
from?
Let's see.
I wanna know everyone's logic behind their decision-making. What's driving your bet?
Math.
Meth.
7/10 ADs with highest remaining outstanding votes are Cuomo leaning, suggests slight decline in Mamdani final vote % margin, borough average for Mamdani currently driven by pro-Mamdani ADs with most votes in, remaining ADs will not boost further.
Math
When people realize that it's only military votes left, they might switch up real quick lol. Mamdani would need to outperform Cuomo by 17 points in the remaining ballots to have the 9% 🤣
That's easy?
Where are you getting your info on this?
His win margin has reduced with mail in ballots? What is this market seeing.
Why is it crawling up?
Because people like Zohran
Seems ridiculous.