This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani is arrested or detained by law enforcement between July 1, and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
It's currently at 5%, but it should be at least 30%. I think the market is underestimating how powerful the Zionist movement is in New York City, and how strongly opposed they are to Mamdani.
90% chance he pulls a Brad Lander. Getting himself arrested protecting immigrants = easiest PR